COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Pre-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Patients (preprint)

Many studies reported a higher risk of COVID-19 disease among patients on dialysis or with kidney transplantation, and the poor outcome of COVID-19 in these patients. Patients in conservative management for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have received attention only recently, therefore less is known about how COVID-19 affects this population. The aim of this study was to provide evidence on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in CKD patients followed up in an integrated healthcare program and in the population living in the same catchment area.The study population included CKD patients in conservative management recruited in the Emilia-Romagna Prevention of Progressive Renal Insufficiency (PIRP) project, followed up in the 4 nephrology units (Ravenna, Forlì, Cesena and Rimini) of the Romagna Local Health Authority (Italy) and alive at 1.01.2020. We estimated the incidence of COVID-19, its related mortality and the excess mortality within the PIRP cohort as of 31.07.2020. COVID-19 incidence in CKD patients was 4.09% (193/4,716 patients), while in the general population it was 0.46% (5,195/1,125,574). The crude mortality rate among CKD patients with COVID-19 was 44.6% (86/193), compared to 4.7% (215/4,523) in CKD patients without COVID-19. The excess mortality of March-April 2020 was +69.8% than the average mortality of March-April 2015-19 in the PIRP cohort. In a cohort mostly including regularly followed up CKD patients, the incidence of COVID-19 disease and COVID-19 related mortality were about ten times higher than those of the general population. The incidence of COVID-19 among CKD patients was strongly related to the spread of the infection in the community, while its lethality is associated with the underlying kidney condition and comorbidities. For this reason, it is urgent to offer a direct protection to CKD patients by prioritizing their vaccination.

Assessing knowledge, concerns, and risk perceptions among Italian medical students during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. (preprint)

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE During the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic, Italian medical students transitioned from in-person to remote learning. This study was carried out to early assess students' sources of information, perceived risk of infection, knowledge and preventive practices in order to resume academic activity. The impact of training and volunteer work was also assessed. METHODS A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in May 2020 among medical students enrolled in the School of Medicine and Surgery, Bologna University. RESULTS The analysis included 537 responses. On average students used seven sources of information on COVID-19. Scientific journals were considered the most trustworthy but they ranked only 6th in the frequency of use. Perceived risk of infection was higher for academic activities, especially in the hospital than daily living activities. Less than 50% of students reported being trained on biological risk and use of PPE. Training received was significantly associated with both perceived risk of infection and confidence in the use of PPE. Students engaged in volunteer work had higher confidence in PPE usage. INTERPRETATION Accessible scientific information and students' engagement in spreading correct knowledge play an important role in challenging misinformation during the pandemic crisis. Students showed suboptimal knowledge about PPE use, calling for additional training. We found a moderate-high perceived risk of infection that could be mitigated with specific educational programs and by promoting voluntary work. Students' engagement in public health emergencies (PHE) could potentially be beneficial for their training and as well as for the healthcare system.

Patterns of COVID-19 related excess mortality in the municipalities of Northern Italy (preprint)

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) spatial distribution in Italy is inhomogeneous, because of its ways of spreading from the initial hotspots. The impact of COVID-19 on mortality has been described at the regional level, while less is known about mortality in demographic subgroups within municipalities. We aimed to describe the excess mortality (EM) due to COVID-19 in the three most affected Italian regions, by estimating EM in subgroups defined by gender and age classes within each municipality from February 23 to March 31, 2020. EM varied widely among municipalities even within the same region; it was similar between genders for the [≥]75 age group, while in the other age groups it was higher in males. Thus, nearby municipalities may show a different mortality burden despite being under common regional health policies, possibly as a result of policies adopted both at the regional and at the municipality level.

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model (preprint)

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of April 17, 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.